As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.
Albert Einstein
What in the world was Einstein on when he, the 20th Century’s greatest scientist, made that statement? Imagine him telling some corporate suit after reading a company financial statement or a numbers-studded proposal for a new marketing campaign, “Your numbers do not refer to reality.”
Numbers are only symbols, and the pictures they add up to are made-up pictures, not real pictures. A numbers-rendered picture inevitably omits important details.
Quant research draws statistical pictures of consumers based on what they tell researchers. Often, focus groups are used to confirm what the numbers say. However, the primary assumption underlying each type of research is deeply flawed.
Famed neurologist Richard Restak indicates why when he says, “We have reason to doubt that full awareness of our motives and other mental activities may be possible.”
Brain scan technology supports Restak’s observation about the incompleteness of our knowledge of our motivations. More often than we’re inclined to admit, the reasons we give for doing something better fit the category of speculation than reality.
Yet researchers confidently present clients with statistical renderings of what consumers have told them, unmindful of the fact that motivations initially take root outside the realm of consciousness.
These thoughts are not grainy opinions. They are solidly grounded in new research into the workings of the brain and mind that should inspire us to rely less on the laws of mathematics and more on the laws of behavioral science to divine and forecast consumer behavior.
The problem is, there is too much economic interest in keeping to the old ways in the $6 billion research industry for change to happen overnight. This is one reason why the neurorevolution I talked about in the previous post is moving more slowly than it might. Few traditional researchers have figured out how to make money from this revolution or otherwise compensate for decaying confidence in their practice of reducing human behavior to numbers while ignoring all the evidence that human behavior like the weather defies absolute prediction.